SINGAPORE'S non-oil domestic exports put up a stronger showing in February, according to the latest trade figures released yesterday by the International Enterprise Singapore.
But last month's export gains - which came as the government trimmed its economic growth forecast - failed to impress because the year-on-year 7.3 per cent expansion, up from 2.8 per cent in January, was below expectations.
Private sector economists were looking for about a 9.4 per cent jump in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) on average.
'Due to the low base effect, we expected the year-on-year increase in NODX to just reach double digits in February,' said Sherman Chan of Moody's Economy.com in a brief report.
Month on month, NODX fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4 per cent in February, reversing an 8.4 per cent rise in the previous month.
As the American economy looks set to go into recession, the outlook for NODX in the months ahead is one of moderation, even though non-oil retained imports (NORI) of intermediate goods point to stronger production.
NORI rose 8.8 per cent last month, against a 0.1 per cent dip in January, according to IE Singapore.
NODX was also still expanding below its long-term potential.
'The underlying trend of NODX, as measured by the three-month average, appears to be turning once again but still remains largely in the doldrums,' said Prakriti Sofat of HSBC Bank in a note to clients.
According to IE Singapore, on a three-month moving average year-on-year basis, NODX rose 1.6 per cent in February, after a 1.7 per cent fall in January.
Moody's Economy.com forecasts that the United States will slip into recession in the first half of this year and that external demand for Singapore products will soften. 'As tech demand tends to be more income-elastic, Singapore's flagship electronic exports look set to remain sluggish in the near term,' it said.
Electronics domestic shipments continued to head south in February, declining for a 13th straight month. They dropped 1.3 per cent despite a low base.
'The decline of electronics domestic exports was due to falling domestic exports of consumer electronics, telecommunications equipment and bare PCB,' IE Singapore said in its report.
The outlook for electronics domestic exports is tipped to stay weak in the first half as the global economy becomes more uncertain, according to Ho Woei Chen of UOB Economics-Treasury Research.
But last month's NODX was still better than January's, thanks to stronger non-electronic domestic shipments that expanded by 14 per cent, up from 6.2 per cent the previous month.
'Growth of non-electronic NODX was led by higher domestic exports of pharmaceuticals, metallic ores and scrap, petrochemicals and measuring instruments,' IE Singapore said.
NODX shipments to the US, which fell 4.4 per cent in January, tumbled 5.2 per cent last month - the worst showing since September 2007. And there is little reason to expect improvement soon.
Domestic exports to Malaysia and Indonesia, among the major markets, also decreased.
But shipments to the European Union - Singapore's biggest market - bounced back from a 25 per cent fall in January to post a 5 per cent increase in February. According to IE Singapore, the top contributors to NODX growth last month were Hong Kong (up 37 per cent), Japan (up 24 per cent) and South Korea (up 28 per cent).
But last month's export gains - which came as the government trimmed its economic growth forecast - failed to impress because the year-on-year 7.3 per cent expansion, up from 2.8 per cent in January, was below expectations.
Private sector economists were looking for about a 9.4 per cent jump in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) on average.
'Due to the low base effect, we expected the year-on-year increase in NODX to just reach double digits in February,' said Sherman Chan of Moody's Economy.com in a brief report.
Month on month, NODX fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4 per cent in February, reversing an 8.4 per cent rise in the previous month.
As the American economy looks set to go into recession, the outlook for NODX in the months ahead is one of moderation, even though non-oil retained imports (NORI) of intermediate goods point to stronger production.
NORI rose 8.8 per cent last month, against a 0.1 per cent dip in January, according to IE Singapore.
NODX was also still expanding below its long-term potential.
'The underlying trend of NODX, as measured by the three-month average, appears to be turning once again but still remains largely in the doldrums,' said Prakriti Sofat of HSBC Bank in a note to clients.
According to IE Singapore, on a three-month moving average year-on-year basis, NODX rose 1.6 per cent in February, after a 1.7 per cent fall in January.
Moody's Economy.com forecasts that the United States will slip into recession in the first half of this year and that external demand for Singapore products will soften. 'As tech demand tends to be more income-elastic, Singapore's flagship electronic exports look set to remain sluggish in the near term,' it said.
Electronics domestic shipments continued to head south in February, declining for a 13th straight month. They dropped 1.3 per cent despite a low base.
'The decline of electronics domestic exports was due to falling domestic exports of consumer electronics, telecommunications equipment and bare PCB,' IE Singapore said in its report.
The outlook for electronics domestic exports is tipped to stay weak in the first half as the global economy becomes more uncertain, according to Ho Woei Chen of UOB Economics-Treasury Research.
But last month's NODX was still better than January's, thanks to stronger non-electronic domestic shipments that expanded by 14 per cent, up from 6.2 per cent the previous month.
'Growth of non-electronic NODX was led by higher domestic exports of pharmaceuticals, metallic ores and scrap, petrochemicals and measuring instruments,' IE Singapore said.
NODX shipments to the US, which fell 4.4 per cent in January, tumbled 5.2 per cent last month - the worst showing since September 2007. And there is little reason to expect improvement soon.
Domestic exports to Malaysia and Indonesia, among the major markets, also decreased.
But shipments to the European Union - Singapore's biggest market - bounced back from a 25 per cent fall in January to post a 5 per cent increase in February. According to IE Singapore, the top contributors to NODX growth last month were Hong Kong (up 37 per cent), Japan (up 24 per cent) and South Korea (up 28 per cent).
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment