Singapore's key non-oil domestic exports (NODX) took a surprisingly sharp dive in March, demonstrating again the widening gap between export performance and the overall growth of the economy.
NODX fell 5.9 per cent year-on-year, against market expectations of a 0.3 per cent drop. It was the first drop in the year, after NODX climbed 2.8 per cent in January and 6.2 per cent in February.
Last month's decrease dragged NODX growth in the first three months (Q1) down to just 0.6 per cent, according to calculations by UOB Economic Treasury Research.
While the Q1 NODX showing is a welcome reversal from the 0.4 per cent dip in the final three months of 2007, it was set against a year-on-year growth estimate of 7.2 per cent for the overall economy.
Traditionally, export growth has led trade-dependent Singapore's economic expansion. But lately, the reverse has been more the case, indicating that the domestic sector - especially for services - is playing a bigger role in fuelling economic growth.
Last month's NODX also unexpectedly slipped by a seasonally adjusted 2.6 per cent from February. Analysts had projected a one per cent rise, after a revised 1.4 per cent decline.
International Enterprise Singapore, the trade promotion agency which released the latest trade figures yesterday, attributed the NODX drop in March to a decrease in electronic and non-electronic shipments.
The contraction in electronic domestic exports in March deepened to 8.5 per cent, after a 2.5 per cent dip the previous month. It was the 14th straight monthly decline.
'The contraction of electronic domestic exports was mainly due to falling domestic exports of parts of personal computers, integrated circuits and telecommunications equipment,' IE Singapore said.
UOB's economist Ho Woei Chen expects electronics domestic shipments to stay weak until the second half of the year, when monetary and fiscal stimulus in the US starts to boost the economy.
Non-electronic domestic exports were down 4.1 per cent after surging 12.8 per cent in March, as both pharmaceutical and petrochemical shipments fell. But Ms Ho feels that non-electronic NODX, in particular the volatile pharmaceutical exports, will continue to drive NODX expansion for the rest of the year.
Domestic shipments to Singapore's three largest markets declined. In fact, IE Singapore said that the top contributors to NODX's fall last month were the European Union, the US and Malaysia.
'While NODX to Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong increased, that to the rest of the top 10 NODX markets contracted in March,' IE Singapore said.
Domestic exports to the EU dropped 27 per cent, reversing the previous month's 4.9 per cent gain. Shipments to the US tumbled 28 per cent, worsening from February's 8 per cent fall.
Singapore's domestic exports to Malaysia declined 13 per cent and slipped 6.2 per cent for China.
NODX fell 5.9 per cent year-on-year, against market expectations of a 0.3 per cent drop. It was the first drop in the year, after NODX climbed 2.8 per cent in January and 6.2 per cent in February.
Last month's decrease dragged NODX growth in the first three months (Q1) down to just 0.6 per cent, according to calculations by UOB Economic Treasury Research.
While the Q1 NODX showing is a welcome reversal from the 0.4 per cent dip in the final three months of 2007, it was set against a year-on-year growth estimate of 7.2 per cent for the overall economy.
Traditionally, export growth has led trade-dependent Singapore's economic expansion. But lately, the reverse has been more the case, indicating that the domestic sector - especially for services - is playing a bigger role in fuelling economic growth.
Last month's NODX also unexpectedly slipped by a seasonally adjusted 2.6 per cent from February. Analysts had projected a one per cent rise, after a revised 1.4 per cent decline.
International Enterprise Singapore, the trade promotion agency which released the latest trade figures yesterday, attributed the NODX drop in March to a decrease in electronic and non-electronic shipments.
The contraction in electronic domestic exports in March deepened to 8.5 per cent, after a 2.5 per cent dip the previous month. It was the 14th straight monthly decline.
'The contraction of electronic domestic exports was mainly due to falling domestic exports of parts of personal computers, integrated circuits and telecommunications equipment,' IE Singapore said.
UOB's economist Ho Woei Chen expects electronics domestic shipments to stay weak until the second half of the year, when monetary and fiscal stimulus in the US starts to boost the economy.
Non-electronic domestic exports were down 4.1 per cent after surging 12.8 per cent in March, as both pharmaceutical and petrochemical shipments fell. But Ms Ho feels that non-electronic NODX, in particular the volatile pharmaceutical exports, will continue to drive NODX expansion for the rest of the year.
Domestic shipments to Singapore's three largest markets declined. In fact, IE Singapore said that the top contributors to NODX's fall last month were the European Union, the US and Malaysia.
'While NODX to Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong increased, that to the rest of the top 10 NODX markets contracted in March,' IE Singapore said.
Domestic exports to the EU dropped 27 per cent, reversing the previous month's 4.9 per cent gain. Shipments to the US tumbled 28 per cent, worsening from February's 8 per cent fall.
Singapore's domestic exports to Malaysia declined 13 per cent and slipped 6.2 per cent for China.
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